CPI Surprises, Retirement Income Planning Risks, and a New Way To Manage Your Health
Economy
CPI Surprises, Falls More than Expected
The Bureau of Labor Statisticscs released their June report for the Consumer Price Index on July 11th. . Both Headline and Core CPI came in lower than expected and below the previous month’s figures.
Headline CPI for June registered at 3.0%, down from 3.3%, and Core CPI came in at 3.3%, down from 3.4% in May.
Core CPI, which excludes Food & Energy, is now at its lowest level since April 2021. This is largely a result of still rising shelter costs.
The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicator (LEI) for June was down 0.2% from the May reading. June’s data indicates that economic activity is expected to decelerate further in the coming months.
Stocks and Indexes
Equal Weighted vs Market Cap Weighted
S&P 500 Market Cap Weighted YTD 17.31%
S&P 500 Equal Weight YTD 7.68%
As of July 19th, 2024
Bonds
Yields fell, closing at 4.25% on July 19th, down from 4.45% July 2nd.
January 2024 10 Year Yield 3.946%
Gold
The price of gold closed up last week, to $2,405.50 per troy ounce.
Up 17.00% YTD.
TECHNICAL UPDATE
The stock market recently experienced a sudden and substantial shift in breadth, as participation broadened over the course of the last week.
Similar to 2016, the rally has been broad with some of the most attractively valued and out-of-favor segments of the market –such as Dividend Aristocrats and Small-Caps– seeing the largest gains.
So, what do we make of this move?
Let's look at what has remained the same, and what is different now.
Remains the Same
The broader economy is still on shaky ground. The recent data releases suggest further deterioration rather than improvement in the economic environment.
The gains the S&P 500 Index has experienced this year have been driven by the most over valued, and overhyped segments of the market.
The adjusted advanced/decline divergence continues, as breadth takes on the opposite direction away from the irrationally exuberant S&P500.
What is Different
A lack of Selling on Up Days has appeared in the Indicator I follow. It has yet to reach the level confirming that this bull market still has legs.
My conclusion, I doubt that we are about to experience a new bull market leg.
Our model portfolios are well positioned to participate should this broadening continue. However, its important to note, using a weight of evidence approach, that we are in a high risk market, and we have to be be in a position to quickly increase defensive measure, if the current exuberance reverses.
Stanton Group Risk Management Current Net Long Positioning
There were no changes made in our Net Long Stock positioning within our model portfolios.
Please schedule a call to review historical and current positioning using our Core & Protect Risk Management Process, our research, and our model portfolios.
https://calendly.com/jstanton-1/stanton-group-introduction-with-john-stanton
Retirement Income Planning
Sequence of Returns Risk
Amy Arnott of Morningstar defines this retirement planning risk, and suggestions on how to mitigate, in this well- written piece.
https://www.morningstar.com/markets/sequence-returns-what-it-means-how-deal
Our practice has developed a retirement income risk management process, that includes developing a personalized lifestyle spending plan, defining retirement sources of monthly income, and testing the plan against a wide range of possible outcomes.
Please reach out by email jstanton@seacrestwm.com, or schedule a call for additional details on this process.
https://calendly.com/jstanton-1/stanton-group-introduction-with-john-stanton
Health and Wealth
Function Health's mission is to empower you to live 100 healthy years.
Co Founder Mark Hyman, M.D., explains that Function is a personal health management platform that empowers people to be their own best health advocate. "It starts out with people getting 100-plus lab tests every year, twice a year, that are rarely run in a healthcare setting. It provides digestible, actionable insights based on the top knowledge experts and thousands of hours of research. It then tracks all the results in a centralized member app over time," he said.
Results are displayed in a dashboard, complete with a detailed summary from a clinician. The platform enables consumers to track their health over time and make proactive changes, according to the company.
Check out Function Health's offering here. https://www.functionhealth.com/about
,
John is the founder of The Stanton Group WP. With more than three decades of experience in the financial services industry, and through SeaCrest Wealth Management, LLC, serves as the Registered Investment Advisor Representative for clients, focusing on financial planning and the investment strategies to support their financial plan.
Based in Naperville, Illinois, John serves clients in Naperville, Plainfield, Darien, Aurora, Geneva, St Charles, and throughout the Chicagoland area.
Learn more about John’s services by visiting www.stantongwp.com
John can be reached at l 630-445-2380 or email JStanton@seacrestwm.com.
The Stanton Group WP provides investment advisory services through SeaCrest Wealth Management LLC, (the “SWM”) a registered investment advisor. SWM is a registered investment advisor (“RIA”), with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission located in the State of New York. SeaCrest Wealth Management, LLC can be reached at (914) 502-1900.
This content, which contains security-related opinions and/or information, is provided for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon in any manner as professional advice, or an endorsement of any practices, products or services. There can be no guarantees or assurances that the views expressed here will be applicable for any particular facts or circumstances, and should not be relied upon in any manner. You should consult your own advisers as to legal, business, tax, and other related matters concerning any investment.
The commentary in this “post” (including any related blog, podcasts, videos, and social media) reflects the personal opinions, viewpoints, and analyses of John Stanton, and should not be regarded as the views of SeaCrest Wealth Management, LLC, or its respective affiliates or as a description of advisory services provided by SeaCrest Wealth Management, LLC, or performance returns of any SeaCrest Wealth Management client.
The views reflected in the commentary are subject to change at any time without notice.
Nothing on this website constitutes investment advice, performance data or any recommendation that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. It also should not be construed as an offer soliciting the purchase or sale of any security mentioned.
Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Any indices referenced for comparison are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. As always please remember investing involves risk and possible loss of principal capital; please seek advice from a licensed professional. Any projections, estimates, forecasts, targets, prospects and/or opinions expressed in these materials are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by others.